Illustrated the use of model performance statistics based on two CMAQ-MADRID

applications, SOS 1999 episode in the SE U.S. and 12-km BRAVO summer 1999

episode (nested within REMSAD BRAVO 36-km modeling results)

• Indicated model evaluation issues regarding local vs. regional, daily/weekly vs.

month/seasonal

Sulfate : MNB= +20% / +51%, MNE = 51% / 89% (SEARCH/IMPROVE)

Nitrate : MNB= +72% / -25%, MNE = 72% / 46% (SEARCH/IMPROVE)

EC : MNB= +14% / -8%, MNE = 52% / 54% (SEARCH/IMPROVE)

PM 2.5 : MNB= -19% / -8%, MNE = 32% / 49% (SEARCH/IMPROVE)

• Described the available performance metrics and illustrated the use of logarithmic and

fractional bias and errors as potential benchmarks

21. Baker K., Midwest RPO, “Fine Grid Model Performance”, National RPO Modeling

Meeting, Denver, CO, 2005.

• Based on the Midwest RPO 36-km and 12-km Modeling study using CAMx4

• Indicated that the model performance for PM2.5 species generally was similar for 36

and 12 km grids; there were some differences in running control scenarios for

sulfate/nitrate, but we could not determine which one is better

22. Morris, R., et al., “VISTAS Grid Resolution Sensitivity”, National RPO Modeling

Meeting, Denver, CO, 2005d.

• Based on VISTAS Southeast U.S. modeling study for Phase I episode (Jan. 2002, July

1999, and July 2001), compared results for CMAQ w/ CB4 and SAPRC99 using the 36

km national RPO domain and the 12 km grid VISTAS domain

• Effects of grid resolution on model performance was mixed (performance was not

necessarily improving using 12-km)

• CMAQ w/ SAPRC99 (mixed for sulfate, worse for nitrate) was not performing better

than w/ CB4

• Compared July 1999 episode for ozone using 36-km & 12-km CMAQ and CAMx.

CMAQ O3 performance degraded to underprediction with finer grid; CAMx is similar

at 36-km and 12-km.

 

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