The amount of visibility improvement needed (in each
Uniform Rate Of Progress (a.k.a Glidepath)-
review period) to reach natural background visibilty conditions by 2064 at each Class I area by achieving
a linear rate of improvement in visibility between the 2000-2004 base period and 2064.
Unmonitored Area Analysis - An analysis used to ensure that a proposed control strategy will be
effective in reducing ozone and/or PM2.5 at locations without air quality monitors so that attainment is
shown throughout a nonattainment area. The purpose of the analysis is to use a combination of model
output and ambient data to identify areas that might exceed the NAAQS if monitors were located there.
Weight of evidence determination (WOE) - This is a set of diverse analyses used to judge whether
attainment of the NAAQS is likely. The credibility of each analysis is assessed and an outcome
consistent with an hypothesis that the NAAQS will be met is identified beforehand. If the set of
outcomes, on balance, is consistent with attainment, then the WOE can be used to show attainment. A
weight of evidence determination includes results from the modeled attainment test, the unmonitored area
analysis, other model outputs and several recommended analyses of air quality, emissions and
Below are the definitions of model performance statistics suggested as part of this ozone
Mean Observation: The time-average mean observed value (in ppb)
Mean Prediction: The time-average mean predicted value (in ppb) paired in time and space
with the observations.
Ratio of the Means: Ratio of the predicted over the observed values. A ratio of greater than 1
indicates on overprediction and a ratio of less than 1 indicates an underprediction.
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