46 Past ozone modeling applications have used a minimum cutoff of either 40 ppb or 60

ppb. Due to the interest in predicted ozone concentrations at or above the 8-hour standard (85

ppb), the higher cut off (60 ppb) is recommended.

47 The use of a 0 ppb threshold can add valuable information about the ability of the

model to simulate a wide range of conditions. Because of the tendency of the MNB and MNGE

metrics to inflate the importance of biases at the lowest observed values (which are in the

denominator), it is recommended that the alternate metrics of normalized mean bias (NMB) and

normalized mean gross error (NMGE) be used as substitutes for evaluations with no minimum

threshold.

48 In certain instances, States/Tribes may also want to conduct performance evaluations

using the “near the monitor” grid cell arrays. A “near the monitor” analysis may be useful when

strong ozone gradients are observed, such as in the presence of a sea breeze or in strongly

oxidant limited conditions. Furthermore, a “near the monitor” performance evaluation is

consistent with the RRF methodology.

 

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