Additionally, emission modelers should also compare the future-year emissions to baseyear
emissions to identify overall growth rates for industrial sectors and reconsider
excessively high growth rates, especially when associated with significant emissions.
#Using the new information, repeat step 1 and continue these steps until a satisfactory
future-year projection across the entire inventory has been completed.
Emissions models (e.g., SMOKE, MOBILE6, NONROAD, etc.) provide the capability to
create future-year inventories using base year inventories and projection information. Emissions
modelers will need to convert the projection data into specific formats for input to these models.
Prior to starting this step, emissions modelers should determine which emissions model will be
used to perform the calculations and make sure that the type of information needed by the model
is being collected.
17.6.4 Create future-year inventories and air quality model inputs
Using the final projection data determined in the previous step, create the final inputs to
emissions models being used. Then, use the emissions model to create the future-year inventory.
Other inputs to emissions models, such as spatial surrogates, speciation profiles, or temporal
allocation factors may also need to be adjusted to reflect conditions expected in the future.
Once a future-year inventory and other data have been created, it must undergo the same
steps as for the base-year modeling, such as temporal allocation, speciation, spatial allocation,
elevated source selection, special on-road mobile processing, and quality assurance. Every
attempt should be made to use consistent approaches between the future year and the base year
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