Sectors can be subsets of the larger groups of stationary area, on-road mobile, nonroad

mobile, and point sources. For ozone modeling, in regions that are NOX-limited, sectors with

higher NOX emissions will be more important for ensuring correct projections, and for VOClimited

regions, sectors with higher VOC emissions will be more important. Mobile sources are

typically large contributors to both VOC and NOx and are therefore usually a priority in

estimation of future-year emissions, particularly for urban areas. For PM and regional haze

modeling, the relative importance of primary PM2.5 emissions and precursors will depend on the

area of the country. Primary PM2.5 emissions may be important in urban areas. In the East, SO2

emissions may be of primary importance. And NOx, VOC, and NH3 will vary in importance

depending on the particular situation.

In some cases, there are sectors that are very difficult or highly uncertain to project into

the future. Wildfire emissions is a common example of such a sector, since models are not

readily available that estimate the magnitude and location of future-year emissions. In these

cases, it may be advisable to create an “average year” inventory and temporal distribution of the

emissions.

Emissions modelers can consider the proximity of the emissions and the expectation of

long-range transport when reviewing projection assumptions. Those emissions that have an

impact on the nonattainment status (whether transported from outside areas or locally generated)

should be given highest priority in evaluating the projection assumptions. For example, less

priority can be given to emissions from distant states for pollutants that do not transport from

those states to the nonattainment area.

 

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