A report entitled “Procedures For Preparing Emissions Projections” describes emissions

projections issues and approaches (U.S. EPA, 1991b; also available at

www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/eiip/techreport/volume10/x01.pdf). It is currently the most

comprehensive resource available about emissions projections. In this section, we will address an

overall approach for tackling emissions projection issues that incorporates use of this document

and points out where other approaches or new data are available to amend the information

included in that report.

Developers of projection-year emissions are advised to take the steps in the bulleted list below.

Each of these steps corresponds to a subsequent subsection.

# Identify sectors of the inventory that require projections and sectors for which projections

are not advisable, and prioritize these sectors based on their expected impact on the

modeling region (Section 17.6.1).

# Collect the available data and models that can be used to project emissions for each of the

sectors (Section 17.6.2).

# For key sectors, determine what information will impact the projection results the most,

and ensure that the data values reflect conditions or expectations of the modeling region

(Section 17.6.3)

# Create inputs needed for emissions models, create future year inventories, quality assure

them, and create air quality model inputs from them (Section 17.6.4)

The remainder of this section provides additional details about these steps.

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17.6.1 Identify and prioritize key sectors and regions for projections

Emissions modelers should evaluate their inventories for those sectors and regions that are

most critical to their modeling results. The purpose of identifying these key sectors is to direct

more resources and efforts to estimating future-year emissions for these sectors in the subsequent

steps.

 

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