allocation, and spatial allocation factors were applied; ensuring that emissions going into the air

quality model are consistent with expected results; and checking modeling-specific parameters

such as stack parameters. In addition, the process of running emission inventories through

emissions models and air quality models often provides insights into the emission inventories.

These insights can lead to inventory changes that improve the quality of inventories for additional

modeling iterations.

In general, this guidance also encourages the use of graphical analysis and Geographic

Information Systems (GIS) for improved QA of emissions data and processing. A commonly used

analysis tool for model-ready emissions data is the Package for Analysis and Visualization of

Environmental Data (PAVE), available at

http://www.cep.unc.edu/empd/EDSS/pave_doc/index.shtml.

Lastly, at the time this document was written, the EPA is developing the Emissions

Modeling Framework (EMF), which includes extensive data management and quality assurance

features intended to assist emissions modelers with the enhanced quality of their data. This tool

will be available for use in 2007 for support of ozone, PM2.5, and regional haze SIPs .

17.6 How Are Emissions Estimated for Future Years?

Emissions estimates for future years are called “emissions projections”. These projections

include both emissions growth (due to increased or decreased activities) and emissions controls

(due to regulations that reduce emissions in specific ways in the future). The goal in making

projections is to obtain a reasonable estimate of future-year emissions that accounts for the key

variables that will affect future emissions. Each State/Tribe is encouraged to incorporate in its

analysis the variables that have historically been shown to drive its economy and emissions, as

well as the changes in growth patterns and regulations that are expected to take place between the

time of their base year and future years. For details on which future year(s) should be modeled

for attainment demonstrations, refer to Section 3.6.

 

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