17.0 How Are the Emission Inputs Developed?

Air quality modeling for 8-hour ozone, PM2.5, and regional haze requires emission inputs

for base case, baseline, and future modeling years. As explained in the EPA Emission Inventory

Guidance (U.S. EPA, 2005e), 2002 is designated as a new base year for 8-hour ozone and PM2.5

SIPs and regional haze plans; therefore, wherever possible, 2002 should be used for baseline

modeling36. The use of an alternative baseline year should be discussed with the appropriate

EPA regional office. The future-year depends on the nonattainment classification of the

individual State or Tribe, as described in Section 3.6. Note that emissions data should be

consistent with the data used in the modeled attainment test, described in Sections 3-6.

Preparation of emissions data for air quality models for the base and future years requires

several steps. First, States and Tribes need to compile base-year inventories for their modeling

region (e.g., the States and Tribes in the modeling grid). For ozone model applications, emission

inventories should include a complete accounting of anthropogenic and biogenic VOC

(speciated), NOx, and CO. For PM and regional haze model applications, emission inventories

should also include emissions of SO2, NH3, PM2.5 (speciated), and PM coarse (PMC). Second,

modelers must collect “ancillary data” associated with the inventories, which prescribes the

spatial, temporal, and chemical speciation information about the emission inventory. Third,

modelers use the ancillary data for “emissions modeling”. Emissions models spatially,

temporally, chemically, and vertically allocate emission inventories to the resolution needed by

AQMs. Fourth, modelers must collect data on growth rates and existing control programs for

use in projecting the base year emission inventories to the future year, and then use an emissions

model to prepare that future year inventory data for input to the air quality model. Fifth,

emissions inventories that reflect the emissions reductions needed for attainment will have to be

prepared for air quality modeling.

 

 

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