Questions like those posed in Section 11.1 can be addressed using a variety of analyses

ranging in complexity from an inspection of air quality data to sophisticated mathematical

analyses. We anticipate the simpler analyses will often be used to develop the initial conceptual

description. These will be followed by more complex approaches or by approaches requiring

more extensive data bases as the need later becomes apparent. These analyses are intended to

channel resources available to support modeled attainment demonstrations onto the most

productive paths possible. They will also provide other pieces of information which can be used

to reinforce conclusions reached with an air quality model, or cause a reassessment of

assumptions made previously in applying the model. As noted in Section 7, corroboratory

analyses should be used to help assess whether a simulated control strategy is sufficient to meet

the NAAQS.

12.0 What Does A Modeling/Analysis Protocol Do, And What Does

Developing One Entail?

Developing and implementing a modeling/analysis protocol is a very important part of an

acceptable modeled attainment demonstration. The protocol should detail and formalize the

procedures for conducting all phases of the modeling study, such as describing the background

and objectives for the study, creating a schedule and organizational structure for the study,

developing the input data, conducting model performance evaluations, interpreting modeling

results, describing procedures for using the model to demonstrate whether proposed strategies

are sufficient to attain the NAAQS and/or regional haze goals, and producing documentation to

be submitted for EPA Regional Office review and approval. Much of the information in U.S.

EPA (1991a) regarding modeling protocols remains applicable. States/Tribes should review the

1991 guidance on protocols. In this document, we have revised the name of the protocol to

“Modeling/Analysis Protocol” to emphasize that the protocol needs to address modeling as well

as other supplemental analyses.

 

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