projected growth of emissions to the future. The attainment test should be performed using the

future base case and the (current year) baseline. If attainment cannot be shown, then model runs

which contain additional control measures are needed. Multiple future year control strategy runs

may need to be completed until the attainment test is passed.

11.0 How Do I Get Started?- A “Conceptual Description”

A State/Tribe should start developing information to support a modeled attainment

demonstration by assembling and reviewing available air quality, emissions and meteorological

data. Baseline design values should be calculated at each monitoring site, as described in

Section 3. For PM applications, speciated data should be reviewed to get a sense of what

component(s) might be contributing most significantly to nonattainment or light extinction. If

past modeling has been performed, the emission scenarios examined and air quality predictions

may also be useful. Readily available information should be used by a State/Tribe to develop an

initial conceptual description of the nonattainment or regional haze problem in the area which is

the focus of a modeled demonstration. A conceptual description is instrumental for identifying

potential stakeholders and for developing a modeling/analysis protocol. It may also influence a

State’s choice of air quality model, modeling domain, grid cell size, priorities for quality

assuring and refining emissions estimates, and the choice of initial diagnostic tests to identify

potentially effective control strategies. In general, a conceptual description is useful for helping

a State/Tribe identify priorities and allocate resources in performing a modeled demonstration.

In this Section, we identify key parts of a conceptual description. We then present

examples of analyses which could be used to describe each of these parts. We note that initial

analyses may be complemented later by additional efforts performed by those implementing the



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