model. This can be done for a variety of purposes, including selection of effective control

strategies, prioritizing inputs needing greatest quality assurance and assessing uncertainty

associated with model predictions. In performing such tests, States/Tribes should remember how

model results are used in the modeled attainment tests recommended in Sections 3-6. Model

results are used in a relative rather than absolute sense. Thus, diagnostic tests should be used to

consider how relative, as well as absolute predictions, are affected by changes to model inputs.

9. Perform future year modeling (including additional control strategies, if necessary) and

apply the attainment test. The base case model runs for performance evaluations should

contain emissions inventories on a highly resolved basis which can best simulate the ozone

and/or PM2.5 concentrations that were measured. For some sources, it may not be appropriate to

project day specific emissions to the future because they may not be representative of typical

base case conditions. This is commonly the case for wildfire and continuous emissions monitor

(CEM) based utility emissions. If needed, a separate baseline model run should be completed for

the purpose of establishing a base to compare against future year model outputs (for calculating

relative response factors).

The next step is to run the future year base case model run. The inventory should

contain all known emissions controls expected to be in place in the future year, as well as

 

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