largely on a review of ambient air quality data. Sometimes, methods described in Sections 7 and

8 (e.g., trend analysis, observational models) may be used. Other times, these types of analyses

may be deferred until after a team is in place to develop and implement steps following a

modeling/analysis protocol. The initial conceptual picture may be based on less resourceintensive

analyses of available data.

2. Develop a modeling/analysis protocol. A protocol describes how modeling will be

performed to support a particular attainment demonstration or uniform rate of progress analysis.

The content of the protocol and identification of participating stakeholders are influenced by the

previously developed conceptual description of the problem. The protocol outlines methods and

procedures which will be used to perform the subsequent steps needed to generate the modeling

results and then apply the modeled attainment test and unmonitored area analysis as well as

other corroborating analyses. This is accomplished by: a) identifying those responsible for

implementing the modeling, b) outlining the specific steps needed to complete the attainment

demonstration, c) identifying those who will review each step as it occurs, and d) identifying

procedures to be used to consider input/suggestions from those potentially affected by the

outcome (i.e., “stakeholders”). In short, the protocol defines the “game plan” and the “rules of

the game”.

3. Select an appropriate model for use. This step includes reviewing non-proprietary, gridbased

photochemical models to select the model that is most appropriate for the application in

terms of (a) state-of-the science algorithms to represent the chemical and physical processes

associated with ozone and/or PM formation, transport, and removal, (b) peer review, (c) model

performance in prior applications, and (d) ease of use. Identifying the air quality model to be

used is an early step in the process, since it may affect how emissions and meteorological

information are input to the model. It could also affect size of the area modeled and choice of


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