required in a WOE submittal will vary as a function of many elements of the model application

(e.g., model performance, degree of residual nonattainment in the modeled attainment test,

amount of uncertainty in the model and its inputs, etc.). Each weight of evidence determination

will be subject to area-specific conditions and data availability. Area-specific factors may also

affect the types of analyses which are feasible for a nonattainment area, as well as the

significance of each. Thus, decisions concerning which analyses to perform and how much

credence to give each need to be made on a case by case basis by those implementing the

modeling/analysis protocol. States/Tribes are encouraged to consult with their EPA Regional

office in advance of initiating supplemental analyses to determine which additional analyses may

be most appropriate for their particular area.

The most useful supplemental analyses are those providing the best evidence as to how

much air quality improvement can be expected as compared to the improvement projected by the

air quality modeling analysis. Each analysis is weighed qualitatively, depending on: 1) the

capacity of the analysis to address the adequacy of a strategy and 2) the technical credibility of

the analysis. If the overall weight of evidence produced by the combination of the primary

modeling analysis and the various supplemental analyses supports the attainment hypothesis,

then attainment of the NAAQS is demonstrated with the proposed strategy. The end product of a

weight of evidence determination is a document which describes analyses performed, data bases

used, key assumptions and outcomes of each analysis, and why a State/Tribe believes that the

evidence, viewed as a whole, supports a conclusion that the area will, or will not, attain the

NAAQS despite a model-predicted DVF concluding otherwise. In conclusion, the basic criteria

required for an attainment demonstration based on weight of evidence are as follows:


n701 - n702 - n703 - n704 - n705 - n706 - n707 - n707 - n709 - n710 - n711 - n712 - n713 - n714 - n715 - n716 - n717 - n718 - n719 - n720 - n721 - n722 - n723 - n724 - n725 - n726 - n727 - n728 - n729 - n730 - n731 - n732 - n733 - n734 - n735 - n736 - n737 - n738 - n739 - n740 - n741 - n742 - n743 - n744 - n745 - n746 - n747 - n748 - n749 - n750


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