species, then one can conclude with additional confidence that the predicted change in ozone or
PM may be accurate.
The strength of the evidence produced by observational models is increased if an
extensive monitoring network exists and at least some of the monitors in the network are capable
of measuring pollutants to the degree of sensitivity required by the methods. Evidence produced
by observational models is more compelling if several techniques are used which complement
one another and produce results for which plausible physical/chemical explanations can be
developed. Indications of a strong quality assurance analysis of collected data and
measurements that are made by a well trained staff also lend credence to the results.
7.2 What Is Entailed In A Weight Of Evidence Determination?
As discussed in Section 2, augmenting a modeled attainment test with supplemental
analyses may yield a conclusion differing from that indicated by the modeled attainment test
results alone. Past modeling analyses have shown that future design value uncertainties of 2-4
ppb for ozone89, can result from use of alternate, yet equally appropriate, emissions inputs,
chemical mechanisms, and meteorological inputs (Jones, 2005; Sistla, 2004). Because of this
uncertainty, EPA believes that weight of evidence determinations can be used in some cases to
demonstrate attainment conclusions that differ from the conclusions of the model attainment test.
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