species, then one can conclude with additional confidence that the predicted change in ozone or

PM may be accurate.

The strength of the evidence produced by observational models is increased if an

extensive monitoring network exists and at least some of the monitors in the network are capable

of measuring pollutants to the degree of sensitivity required by the methods. Evidence produced

by observational models is more compelling if several techniques are used which complement

one another and produce results for which plausible physical/chemical explanations can be

developed. Indications of a strong quality assurance analysis of collected data and

measurements that are made by a well trained staff also lend credence to the results.

7.2 What Is Entailed In A Weight Of Evidence Determination?

As discussed in Section 2, augmenting a modeled attainment test with supplemental

analyses may yield a conclusion differing from that indicated by the modeled attainment test

results alone. Past modeling analyses have shown that future design value uncertainties of 2-4

ppb for ozone89, can result from use of alternate, yet equally appropriate, emissions inputs,

chemical mechanisms, and meteorological inputs (Jones, 2005; Sistla, 2004). Because of this

uncertainty, EPA believes that weight of evidence determinations can be used in some cases to

demonstrate attainment conclusions that differ from the conclusions of the model attainment test.


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