For the 20% days with best visibility,

dv difference = 18.7 - 19.7 = - 1.0 deciviews

The future year strategy leads to an improvement in visibility of 2.2 deciviews. Thus, the

visibility improvement for the 20% days with the worst visibility is predicted to exceed the

uniform rate of progress (-2.2 dv vs. -2.0 dv). Also visibility is not predicted to deteriorate on

the best days but, in fact, is estimated to improve (by 1.0 deciviews)

This information is used in the process of determining reasonable progress. The

remaining steps in the process are beyond the modeling guidance. The modeling can only be

used to determine the predicted improvement in visibility (and whether the improvement is on,

above, or below the glidepath). It cannot determine the reasonable progress goals and it cannot

determine whether reasonable progress is met.

6.5 How Do I Select Appropriate Inputs For The Uniform Rate of Progress


In Section 6.4, we described the recommended modeled uniform rate of progress

analysis. An important part of the analysis requires using component-specific relative response

factors (RRF’s), obtained with models, to estimate future concentrations of these components

and, subsequently, future visibility. In this subsection, we address more details concerning the

calculation of RRFs. Second, there are several assumptions inherent in the recommended

modeled uniform rate of progress analysis. We identify these in this subsection and comment on

their underlying rationale. More specifically, we address eight issues:

- how to estimate base period air quality in a Class I area without monitored data;



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