Step 4- Apply the component specific RRFs to observed air quality to obtain projected

quarterly species estimates.

The quarter 1 concentrations for each year are multiplied by the component RRFs. Ammonium

concentrations are calculated from the future year sulfate, nitrate, and (baseline) DON value.

Water concentrations are calculated from the future year nitrate, sulfate, and ammonium

concentrations, using an empirical equation.

Step 5. Sum the quarterly components to get quarterly “98th percentile” PM2.5 values.

The year 1 PM2.5 concentration is equal to the sum of the 7 components plus 0.5 ug/m3 blank

mass:

Year 1= 22.47 + 6.70 + 16.77 + 3.70 + 4.14 + 10.41 + 8.41 + 0.5 = 72.6

Filling in the quarter 1 values for the other 4 years, plus the other 3 quarters for each year; the

full matrix of quarterly values is as follows:

Step 6. Calculate future year 5 year weighted average 24-hour design values and compare

to the NAAQS.

In the example, the highest quarterly value for each year in step 5 represents the future year

5640 CFR part 58 subpart D 58.30

63

annual 98th percentile. Therefore, the 3 year average design values are:

DV1 = (72.6 + 60.5 + 63.0)/3 = 65.4

DV2 = (60.5 + 63.0 + 52.5)/3 = 58.7

DV3 = (63.0 + 52.5 + 67.1)/3 = 60.9

 

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