Step 3. Using model results, derive component-specific relative response factors (RRF) at

each monitor for each quarter.

For each quarter, apply an air quality model to estimate current and future concentrations for

each of the components of PM2.5. Take the ratio of future to current predictions for each

component on the modeled days with PM2.5 > 65 ug/3 or the high end of the distribution of

modeled days. The result is a component-specific relative response factor (RRF). (e.g., given

model predicted base year nitrate of 20.0 ug/m3 and future year concentration of 15.0 ug/m3, then

RRF for nitrate is 0.750).

The relative response factor for component j at a site i is given by the following expression:

(RRF)ij = ([Cj, projected]/[Cj, current])i

where Cj, current is the mean concentration (for the high modeled days for each quarter)

predicted at or near the monitoring site with emissions characteristic of the period used to

calculate the baseline design value for 24-hour PM2.5.

Cj, projected is the future year mean concentration (for the high modeled days for each

quarter) predicted at or near the monitoring site with emissions characteristic of the

future year period.

Step 4. Apply the component specific RRFs to observed air quality to obtain projected

quarterly species estimates.

For each quarter, multiply the quarterly component concentration (step 2) times the componentspecific

RRF obtained in step 3. This leads to an estimated future quarterly concentration for

each component. (e.g., 21.00 ug/m3 nitrate x 0.750 = future nitrate of 15.75 ug/m3).

 

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