Step 3. Calculate future design values for all monitoring sites in the nonattainment area.

Multiply the observed baseline design values obtained in Step 1 times the relative response

factors obtained in Step 2.

In Table 4.2, we see (column (2)) that the baseline observed design value at monitor site I

is 102.0 ppb. Using Equation (3.1), the predicted future design value for monitor site I is,

(DVF)I = (102.0 ppb) (0.867) = 88.434 ppb = 88 ppb

Note that the final future design value is truncated36 and in this example, the modeled attainment

test is not passed at monitor site I.

36This effectively defines attainment in the modeled test as <= 84.999 ppb and

nonattainment as >= 85.0 ppb.

5.0 What Are The Modeled Attainment Tests For The Two PM2.5 NAAQS?

In this section, we begin by illustrating the monitored tests for the annual and 24-hour

NAAQS. We next identify how to derive needed inputs from available modeled data for the two

modeled attainment tests and highlight some implications that result from the recommended

tests. We conclude the section by describing a primary PM2.5 analysis which may be used to

better capture the contributions of primary PM2.5 to nonattainment and the benefits of controlling

primary PM2.5 in areas with relatively large contributions from primary sources.

5.1 What Is The Recommended Modeled Attainment Test For The Annual


As described in section 2, the monitored attainment test for PM2.5 utilizes both PM2.5 and

individual PM2.5 component species. We therefore call the attainment test for PM2.5, the

Speciated Modeled Attainment Test (SMAT). A separate RRF is calculated for each PM2.5

species. In order to perform the recommended modeled attainment test, States should divide

observed mass concentrations of PM2.5 into 7 components (plus passive mass):

- mass associated with sulfates

- mass associated with nitrates

-mass associated with ammonium

- mass associated with organic carbon

- mass associated with elemental carbon

-mass associated with particle bound water

- mass associated with “other”primary inorganic


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