Figure 4.1 shows an example of the raw data from the analysis for all of the monitoring

sites in the Baltimore region. The plot shows the daily RRFs vs. the base case daily maximum

modeled concentrations for all days (above 60 ppb in this case). In this example, it can be seen

that the model tends to respond more to emissions reductions (lower RRFs) at higher predicted

ozone concentrations. There appears to be a general pattern in the model results such that the

model predicts less benefit from emissions reductions at lower concentrations. The greater

model response at higher concentrations is likely due to more “controllable ozone” at higher

concentrations. On days with high ozone concentrations, there is a relatively high percentage of

locally and/or regionally generated ozone compared to days with low basecase concentrations.

Days with low concentrations likely have a high percentage of ozone due to background and

boundary conditions (background ozone is uncontrollable, although boundary conditions may be

controllable, depending on the size of the domain.) Since we are generally interested in the

model response on high ozone days, these results tend to suggest that the RRF calculation should

be limited to days when the model predicts high ozone concentrations.

 

29See http://www.epa.gov/cair/pdfs/finaltech02.pdf for documentation of the base case

and future year modeling.

 

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