3.5 Which base year emissions inventory should be projected to the future for

the purpose of calculating RRFs?

The modeled attainment test adjusts observed concentrations during a baseline period

(e.g., 2000-2004) to a future period (e.g., 2009) using model-derived “relative response factors”.

It is important that emissions used in the attainment test correspond with the period reflected by

the chosen baseline design value period (e.g., 2000-2004). Deviations from this constraint will

diminish the credibility of the relative response factors. Therefore, it is important to choose an

appropriate baseline emissions year. There are potentially two different base year emissions

inventories. One is the base case inventory which represents the emissions for the meteorology

that is being modeled. These are the emissions that are used for model performance evaluations.

For example, if a State is modeling a base year of 1998 (or episodes from 1998), “base case”

emissions and meteorology would be for 1998. As described in Section 18, it is essential to use

base case emissions together with meteorology occurring in the modeled episode(s) in order to

evaluate model performance.

Once the model has been shown to perform adequately, it is no longer necessary to model

the base case emissions. It now becomes important to model emissions corresponding to the

period with a recent observed design value. The second potential base year inventory

corresponds to the middle year of the baseline average design value (e.g 2002 for a 2000-2004

average design value). This is called the baseline inventory. The baseline emissions inventory is

the inventory that is ultimately projected to a future year.

24It would also be appropriate to commit to additional emissions controls in lieu of

additional monitoring in unmonitored areas.

 

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