3.5 Which base year emissions inventory should be projected to the future for
the purpose of calculating RRFs?
The modeled attainment test adjusts observed concentrations during a baseline period
(e.g., 2000-2004) to a future period (e.g., 2009) using model-derived “relative response factors”.
It is important that emissions used in the attainment test correspond with the period reflected by
the chosen baseline design value period (e.g., 2000-2004). Deviations from this constraint will
diminish the credibility of the relative response factors. Therefore, it is important to choose an
appropriate baseline emissions year. There are potentially two different base year emissions
inventories. One is the base case inventory which represents the emissions for the meteorology
that is being modeled. These are the emissions that are used for model performance evaluations.
For example, if a State is modeling a base year of 1998 (or episodes from 1998), “base case”
emissions and meteorology would be for 1998. As described in Section 18, it is essential to use
base case emissionstogether with meteorology occurring in the modeled episode(s) in order to
evaluate model performance.
Once the model has been shown to perform adequately, it is no longer necessary to model
the base case emissions. It now becomes important to model emissions corresponding to the
period with a recent observed design value. The second potential base year inventory
corresponds to the middle year of the baseline average design value (e.g 2002 for a 2000-2004
average design value). This is called the baseline inventory. The baseline emissions inventory is
the inventory that is ultimately projected to a future year.
24It would also be appropriate to commit to additional emissions controls in lieu of
additional monitoring in unmonitored areas.
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