Step 3

The next step is to create future year fields by multiplying the base year gradient adjusted

spatial fields by model derived gridded RRFs. The RRFs for the unmonitored area analysis are

calculated in the same way as the monitored based attainment test (except that the grid cell array

is not used in the spatial fields based analysis). The future year concentrations are equal to the

base year concentration times the RRF in each grid cell. The future year gradient adjusted

spatial fields are then analyzed to determine if any grid cells are predicted to remain above the


For ozone, a single spatial field is multiplied by a single set of model derived RRFs. For

PM2.5, the RRFs for each of the species, for each quarter, are multiplied by the spatial fields for

each species, for each quarter.

3.4.3 Using the Results of the Unmonitored Area Analysis

It should be stressed that due to the lack of measured data, the examination of ozone and

PM2.5 concentrations as part of the unmonitored area analysis is more uncertain than the monitor

based attainment test. As a result, the unmonitored area analysis should be treated as a separate

test from the monitor based attainment test. The results from the unmonitored area analysis

should, at a minimum, be included as a supplemental analysis. While it is expected that

additional emissions controls are needed to eliminate predicted violations of the monitor based

test, the same requirements may not be appropriate in unmonitored areas.


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