4) The average (of the three) design value periods which straddle the baseline inventory year.

For the modeled attainment tests we recommend using the average of the three design

value periods which include the baseline inventory year (choice number 4 from above). Based

on the attributes listed above, the average of the three design value periods best represents the

baseline concentrations, while taking into account the variability of the meteorology and

emissions (over a five year period).

The three design values that are averaged in the calculation cover a five year period, but

the average design value is not a straight five year average. It is, in effect, a weighted average of

the annual averages. For example, given a baseline inventory year of 2002, the years used to

calculate the average design value range from 2000-2004. In the average of the 2000-2002,

2001-2003, and 2002-2004 periods, 2002 is “weighted” three times, 2001 and 2003 are weighted

twice, and 2000 and 2004 are weighted once. This has the desired effect of weighting the

projected ozone or PM2.5 values towards the middle year of the five year period, which is the

emissions year (2002 in this example). The average design value methodology is weighted

towards the inventory year (which is the middle year) and also takes into account the emissions

and meteorological variability that occurs over the full five year period (although the emissions

and meteorology from the other years are weighted less than the middle year of the 5 year

 

 

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