selected for modeling. If corroboratory analyses produce strong evidence that a control strategy
is unlikely to meet the NAAQS, then the strategy may be inadequate, even if the modeled
attainment test is passed.
5. Focusing the modeled attainment test only at monitoring sites could result in control
targets which are too low if the monitoring network is limited or poorly designed. We
recommend a test which includes a review of the strategy’s impact at locations without monitors.
This exercise provides a supplemental test to determine whether there is a need for further action
despite passing the modeled attainment test at all monitoring sites. While this test may indicate
potential unmonitored violations, ultimately, the best way to account for a limited or poorly
designed monitoring network is to use the model results, or other available analyses, to help
determine locations where additional monitors should be sited.
3.0 What Is The Recommended Modeled Attainment Test?
In Section 2, we provided an overview of the recommended modeled attainment test. In
this section we provide more details on the calculation of baseline design values, the definition
of “nearby grid cells”, and an “unmonitored area analysis” which provides estimates of future
year values in unmonitored areas. Sections 4, 5, and 6 provide more specific details and
examples for attainment tests for ozone and PM2.5, and the uniform rate of progress assessment
for regional haze respectively.
We begin by establishing the basic equation on which all of the tests are built upon.
Equation (3.1) describes the recommended modeled attainment test, applied near monitoring site
(DVF)I = (RRF)I (DVB)I (3.1)
(DVB)I = the baseline concentration monitored at site I, units in ppb or ug/m313;
(RRF)I = the relative response factor, calculated near site I, unitless
The relative response factor is the ratio of the future concentration predicted near a
monitor (averaged over multiple days) to the baseline concentration predicted near
the monitor (averaged over the same days), and
(DVF)I = the estimated future design value for the time attainment
n601 - n602 - n603 - n604 - n605 - n606 - n607 - n608 - n609 - n610 - n611 - n612 - n613 - n614 - n615 - n616 - n617 - n618 - n619 - n620 - n621 - n622 - n623 - n624 - n625 - n626 - n627 - n628 - n629 - n630 - n631 - n632 - n633 - n634 - n635 - n636 - n637 - n638 - n639 - n640 - n641 - n642 - n643 - n644 - n645 - n646 - n647 - n648 - n649 - n650
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