States/Tribes should estimate the amount of emission reduction needed to demonstrate

attainment of the NAAQS using the modeled attainment test. We recommend a similar analysis

for assessing progress toward reducing regional haze. In addition, a State/Tribe should consider

a broader set of model results, as well as perform a set of other corroboratory analyses to further

support whether a proposed emission reduction will lead to attainment of the NAAQS or uniform

rate of progress.

2.1 What Is The Recommended Modeled Attainment Test for Ozone and PM2.5?-

An Overview

A modeled attainment test is an exercise in which an air quality model is used to simulate

current and future air quality. If future estimates of ozone and/or PM2.5 concentrations are less

than the NAAQS, then this element of the attainment test is satisfied11. Our recommended test is

one in which model estimates are used in a “relative” rather than “absolute” sense. That is, we

take the ratio of the model’s future to current (baseline) predictions at monitors. We call these

ratios, relative response factors. Future ozone and/or PM2.5 concentrations are estimated at

existing monitoring sites by multiplying a modeled relative response factor at locations “near”

each monitor by the observation-based, monitor-specific, “baseline” design value. The resulting

predicted “future concentrations” are compared to NAAQS.

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