18.0 What are the Procedures for Evaluating Model Performance and What is the Role

of Diagnostic Analyses? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190

18.1 How Do I Assess Model Performance And Make Use of Operational and

Diagnostic Evaluations? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190

18.2 What Pollutants Are of Interest for Model Performance? . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191

18.3 What Are the PM2.5 Measurement versus Model Concentration Issues? . 192

18.4 How Should the Operational Evaluation of Performance Be Completed? 197

18.4.1 Ozone Operational Evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198

18.4.2 PM/RH Operational Evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202

18.5 How Do I Assess Model Performance and What Types of Analyses Can be

Done to Evaluate the Accuracy of the Model Response: Diagnostic

Evaluations? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208

18.5.1 Observational models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209

18.5.2 Probing Tools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210

18.5.3 Receptor Models (Multi-variate Source Apportionment) . . . . . . . . . 213

18.5.4 Retrospective Analyses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214

18.5.5 Alternative Base Cases (Sensitivity tests) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215

18.6 How Should the Results of the Model Evaluation be Assessed (Interpreted)?

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216

REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218

Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239

 

 

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