3 DEMONSTRATION OF THE PHASE 1 MODELING SYSTEM

The primary task of this research effort was to conduct a demonstration application of the

MESOPUFF II modeling system, following the IWAQM Phase 1 recommendations (EPA,

1993). At the outset, the specific air quality setting that would dictate the use of the

MESOPUFF II system was undefined. The focus of the project was to go through the process

of gathering and processing data, exercising the models, and analyzing results, in order to

identify issues and problems that users of the MESOPUFF II modeling system would

inevitably confront. In addition, because the pre-processing of meteorological data is the most

time-consuming step encountered during MESOPUFF II application, an important objective

was to prepare a five-year set of MESOPUFF II meteorological inputs for a multi-state region

surrounding Shenandoah National Park that would be suitable for future applications.

The first step in the demonstration application was the development of a modeling protocol.

The EPA protocol for MESOPUFF II (EPA 1992a) and the interim IWAQM

recommendations were consulted in development of the protocol. The first draft of this

document was prepared in the form of an outline, and was used as a focus for discussion in

initial meetings with the IWAQM. After several key issues were resolved, a more detailed

modeling protocol was prepared. This document identified a proposed modeling domain and

proposed approaches for development of inputs and processing of outputs. The issues

presented in the modeling protocols, and the decisions that were ultimately made regarding

modeling protocol, are presented in the remainder of this section.

In order for the results of the demonstration application to have some value, beyond simply

demonstrating that the Phase 1 modeling system could be exercised, the IWAQM decided that

the sources to be modeled should consist of existing sources subject to PSD requirements and

located within 200 km of Shenandoah National Park.

The original modeling plan, as described in the protocol, was to:

• Prepare 5 years (1988-92) of meteorological data using MESOPAC, suitable for future

applications in the region.

• Simulate 5 years (1988-92) with MESOPUFF II using a single set of PSD sources. The

results would indicate the cumulative PSD increment and AQRV impacts due to all the

modeled sources.

As the source data were being gathered, it became apparent that identification of "PSD

sources" is not straightforward, that there are multiple triggering dates for PSD provisions for

 

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