emissions from 1996, the average maximum design value is determined using the maxima

observed in 1994-96, 1995-97 and 1996-98. For purposes of illustration, let us assume this

average maximum design value is 155 ppb. The target for the year of the mid-course review

projected inventory (i.e., 2004 in this example) is derived using the expression below.

Mid-course review target = 155 ppb - (155 ppb - 124 ppb) ( 0.58) = 137 ppb

So long as this value (137 ppb) is not 5% or more below the observed air quality design value

in 2004, the SIP is on track toward attainment.10 Earlier, we noted that the observed current

maximum design value is 136 ppb. We note that 95% of this value is 129 ppb. Clearly, the

predetermined target of 137 ppb is not 5% or more below the observed design value (136

ppb). Thus, in this example, the SIP is on track toward attainment.

Estimating relative importance of regional transport vs. local emissions. States should

review results of past model applications which may be relevant for addressing this issue.

Applications in which regional control measures were added to previously simulated locally

applied control measures may be germane. Alternatively, applications in which locally applied

control measures are superimposed over previously simulated regional measures may be

reviewed. Comparing effects of regional/superimposed on local measures vs.

local/superimposed on regional measures may provide further insight into the relative

importance of regional transport vs. local emissions as contributors to a nonattainment




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