Next, note the relative progress made by 2004 in reducing the predicted metric from its

value corresponding to 1996 emissions to its value corresponding to 2005 emissions. This

relative modeled progress is the value against which observed progress in reducing the area’s

monitored design value (or other selected measure) is compared. The procedure for using

modeled results as a means for assessing whether a monitored design value indicates a SIP

revision is on track toward attainment is illustrated in the following example.

EXAMPLE

Given: An area’s average maximum monitored design value for 1994-96, 1995-97 and 1996-

98 is 155 ppb, and the observed design value in 2004 is 136 ppb. Using a curve fitting

technique like that described in Section 2.1, variability in the maximum monitored design

value attributable to fluctuations in meteorology has been determined to be 5%. Modeling

results available prior to the mid-course review show predicted peak 1-hour daily maximum

ozone predictions of 150, 139 and 131 ppb corresponding to 1996, 2004 and 2005 emissions.

Find: Is the SIP revision on track toward attainment of the 1-hr NAAQS for ozone by 2007?

Solution:

(1) Calculate the relative modeled progress predicted for 2004.

Rel.modeled progress = ((150 - 139)/(150 - 131)) x 100 = 58%

(2) Apply this relative progress to the average maximum design value for the three 3-year

periods including the year of the current inventory. Thus, if the base inventory reflects

n1201 - n1202 - n1203 - n1204 - n1205 - n1206 - n1207 - n1208 - n1209 - n1210 - n1211 - n1212 - n1213 - n1214 - n1215 - n1216 - n1217 - n1218 - n1219 - n1220 - n1221 - n1222 - n1223 - n1224 - n1225 - n1226 - n1227 - n1228 - n1229 - n1230 - n1231 - n1232 - n1233 - n1234 - n1235 - n1236 - n1237 - n1238 - n1239 - n1240 - n1241 - n1242 - n1243 - n1244 - n1245 - n1246 - n12247 - n1248 - n1249 - n1250

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