(1) Taking estimated changes in precursor emissions and meteorological factors affecting

air quality into account, do measured air quality and measured changes in air quality

observed between the time of the mid-course review and earlier suggest improvement at a

sufficient rate so that attainment is likely by the required date? Will the remaining

measures provide a rate of air quality improvement that is consistent with attainment by

the attainment date?

(2) To what extent does transport of ozone and/or precursors from areas upwind of a

nonattainment area account for air quality in the nonattainment area subject to the midcourse


(3) Is progress toward meeting the ozone NAAQS (reflected by changes in air quality

normalized for meteorological differences) consistent with relative progress toward the

ozone NAAQS predicted earlier with air quality models?

Prior to performing an analysis to address one or more of the issues, indicate why the

particular analysis is relevant for making a judgment on whether the SIP is on track. In

addition, prior to performing each analysis, identify an outcome which is consistent with a

hypothesis that the SIP is on track toward attainment.

It takes time to perform analyses needed to address these issues. Therefore, we

recommend that 6 months to a year prior to the time a mid-course review is due, States should

identify analyses and data bases which will be used to support a mid-course review and

discuss these with the appropriate U.S. EPA Regional Office. Analyses to address each of

these issues are described more fully in Section 2.0.



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