a. A near-term correction, for which the State could apply one or more of its contingency

measures (contained in the SIP for failure to make reasonable further progress) or additional

measures. One way to identify additional emission reductions needed is found in the attached

technical guidance document.

b. A longer term correction, which may require new modeling, following the June 1996, EPA

“Guidance on Use of Modeled Results to Demonstrate Attainment of the Ozone NAAQS,”

and which may result in the need for adoption of new additional emission control measures.



1. Review/Assessment of monitored ozone trends from

1994 to the year the MCR is performed (e.g., 2004).

This should address year-to-year variations with

emphasis on the most recent 5 years.

Tech. Guidance citation: 2.1

Trends assessment over a longer period

(that corresponds to the time period of

the SIP) that accounts for year-to-year


2. Adjustment of monitored ozone trends for year-toyear

meteorological variations using curve fitting


Tech. Guidance citation: 2.1

Adjustment for Meteorology using

CART or other Technique

Tech. Guidance citation: 2.1

3. An assessment of observed ozone trends in relation to

previous projections of emission reductions from 1996 to

the year the MCR is performed (e.g., 2004), including an

interpretation of observed changes in ozone

concentrations resulting from the NOx SIP call.5 It is not

intended to suggest that an entire emission inventory

needs to be developed for the year for which the MCR is

performed. But, some assessment of the relative change

in ozone concentrations compared to the relative change

in emissions is needed. EPA expects that any emissions

assessment should be based on MOBILE6.

Tech. Guidance citation: 2.1



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