Many possible attainment-year emission control strategies can

be set up and simulated. Eventually, a modeling analysis must be

submitted for approval as the basis of a SIP demonstration. The

effectiveness of a given set of control measures in reducing ozone

(and perhaps other pollutants) is a major factor in selecting the

final emission control strategy.

Prior studies have typically used a progression of control

strategy scenarios in the modeling to ascertain an effective

strategy for attainment. A suggested logical progression is the


1. Simulate the CAAA and other mandated control measures for

the attainment year to determine if these measures are

sufficient to demonstrate attainment of the ozone NAAQS.

2. If mandated controls are insufficient to demonstrate

attainment, superimpose a series of additional, acrossthe-

board reductions in VOCs-only, VOCs-plus-NOx, and

NOx-only strategies, relative to the mandatory CAAA

controls, to identify a suitable emission-reduction

target range.

3. Once an approximate target range is ascertained in

steps 1 and 2, simulate control strategies that reflect

source-specific or source-category-specific control

measures and that realize the approximate emission

reductions identified as sufficient to reduce daily

maximum ozone to 0.12 ppm or less.

4. Adjust the strategy chosen in step 3 until it is

sufficient to demonstrate attainment of the NAAQS, as



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