1. The graphical performance procedures specified in Section

5.1.1 should be conducted for each meteorological episode. To

assess model performance, the Technical Committee should

analyze the time-series plots, ground-level isopleths,

quantile-quantile plots, and scatterplots. Use of "paired"

predictions of daily maxima may also be considered.

2. The statistical performance measures specified in Section

5.1.2 should also be derived and evaluated for each meteorological

episode. When interpreting these measures, the

monitoring network density and design should be considered.

Caution is urged when interpreting the statistical measures

for a sparse monitoring network.

It is recommended that the statistical performance measures be

compared with the following ranges:

! Unpaired highest prediction accuracy: ±15-20 percent

! Normalized bias: ±5-15 percent

! Gross error of all pairs >60 ppb: 30-35 percent

If all of these statistical measures are within the ranges

shown, and the graphical performance procedures also are

interpreted to yield acceptable results, then the model is

judged to be performing acceptably.

If any of the statistical measures are worse than the above

 

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