3. Mixing height and wind speed variations - Much

uncertainty is associated with mixing heights and wind

speeds, and simulated concentrations are often sensitive

to these inputs. Simulations that test the sensitivity

of model estimates to variations in wind speed and/or

mixing height provide bounds on some of the uncertainty

resulting from these parameters. Large sensitivity may

suggest that future model applications will need

improvement in the meteorological data bases. Also,

large sensitivity may suggest a need to consider

alternative wind field generation techniques.

Certain numerical measures, which are recommended in the

discussion of model performance evaluation in Chapter 5, are also

useful diagnostic tools. For example, consistent underpredictions

usually produce bias values less than zero. This phenomenon could

be due to various factors, such as overstatement of wind speeds or

mixing heights, or low emission estimates. Modelers are encouraged

to use numerical as well as graphical techniques in the diagnostic

process.

 

 

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